Is the European model for the Western Balkans destined to fail?

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(Keynote speech given at Skopje Youth Summit 2019)

Good evening everyone.

Allow me to begin by making two important disclaimers.

First – it is not a pleasure to give this speech and to be on this side of the argument. I am an optimist by nature and a liberal by convictions. But I am also a realist who can’t live in denial.

Secondly – I am on the other side of the argument with my friend Adi Cerimagic, not because we disagree on values and goals – such as open and democratic Balkan societies - but because we read the problem differently and propose different solutions.

I would like to reframe our dilemma by asking a fundamental question: what does the European model even mean today?  

If you had asked me a few years ago what Europe meant, the first words that would come to mind would be a set of values – like democracy, human rights, diversity and solidarity.

Being pro-European used to be very instinctive. The EU was the natural ally of democracy activists. The European flag was a source of inspiration, waived in protests from Kyiv to Skopje.

Many of us in the Balkans relied on the prospect of EU membership and the conditions that come with it. It was an anchor that would help strengthen our democracies and secure peace, by making our borders irrelevant.

But over the past few years my view of the EU has changed.  

Now, I have had people tell me I’ve gone crazy. Maybe it’s true!  

But is it really crazy to say that Europe no longer means what we thought it did?

Is it crazy to say that Europe is becoming a simple geographical term, blind to values – a fortress of exclusion, that has given xenophobia and nativism the keys to its politics?

Consider how the EU continues to leave 1.8 million Kosovars as the only people in Europe without basic visa liberalization, despite the country meeting tough conditions. Think about how it refuses to even start accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia, despite painful reforms.

Is it crazy to say that with every passing day the EU is becoming a weaker normative force standing up for progressive values, both within the EU and outside of it?

Consider the latest practical joke the EU has pulled on our region. The new EU Commissioner responsible for enlargement – the person who will monitor our democratic reforms – has been chosen by Hungary’s Victor Orban. Is Orban’s authoritarianism the European model we are discussing here today?  

Is it crazy to suggest that the EU, because of its decision-making architecture, is so paralyzed by divisions, that it is unable to solve its problems, including its strategy on the Western Balkans? That instead of cooperation we will continue to see more unilateral steps and rivalries between EU states?

Consider how individual western European countries are now rushing to appease Putin and thus betraying Eastern Europe.

First Germany backstabbed Ukraine by approving Russia’s “North Stream” pipeline and by allowing Russia to return to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Now French President Macron is talking about Putin not as a threat but as a security partner in his vision of a redesigned Europe.

There has been a lot of moral grandstanding these past years about how Europe is different from the “America first” doctrine of Donald Trump. But what we have seen in reality is “France first” and “Germany first” – just with better manners.

Knowing what we know from the history of politics and the state of the world, is it really crazy to believe that this is not just a temporary phenomenon, but a tectonic global shift that weakens multilateral projects like the EU?

Far right parties in Europe are not necessarily winning elections, but they have scared traditional parties so much that they are effectively dictating policy. Looking at things from the Western Balkans, one can’t really distinguish nowadays between Emanuel Macron and Marie Le Pen.

The problem is structural and it is here to stay. The European perspective of the Balkans is destined to fail for the foreseeable future not because of us, but because Europe as we knew it is failing and the Western Balkans is one of the side effects.

Our fault is that we keep pretending that none of this is happening. Most importantly, we continue to see the EU as an end, and not as a means. We should have learned even earlier from the experience of new EU members like Hungary and Croatia that problems don’t disappear once you are a member.

Perhaps we could turn this into an opportunity to focus our attention on things that are within our control.

Few key things come to mind.

First, the security situation. These are dangerous times. “America first” and “France first” will reverberate to “Serbia first”, “Albania first”, “Macedonia first”, etc. This will raise the prospect of ethnic tensions. We need to prioritize the resolution of disputes between our countries in such a way that we don’t go back to conflicts.

Secondly, we need to at minimum seek access to the EU market and to integrate our small economies. Too many people are already leaving and we can’t afford to waste more time with such low levels of social and economic development.

Third, we should stop treating democratic standards of governance as a distant technical process of meeting some EU criteria. We should end the charade. Our governments need to build trust in democracy by showing that it can actually deliver to citizens, not by satisfied or even deceiving bureaucrats in Brussels.

The job of activists like us is to work to expand the grassroots constituencies of people who care about democratic values. This is the only way how we can fight authoritarianism, not empty complaints to Brussels. On human rights, we still do have external instruments like the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights that we can rely on.

Ultimately, it’s the values that matter in the political model. We can ask the EU to help us from the outside. If the EU ever comes back to its senses, we should definitely consider joining it. But an EU that does not want us is not an EU that is worth pursuing.