Even the most resilient and submissive society has its limits. Will the frustrations of Kosovo’s silent majority of the disenchanted lead to any social unrest?
Op-Ed: Balkan Insight, October 1st
One of my favorite tools for measuring public opinion in Kosovo is the "vox populi" segment in KTV's morning programme. The sampling surely isn’t scientific, but it offers authentic insights into the ways people perceive current events. So I listened in on the show with added curiosity one morning as citizens were discussing President Sejdiu's reported salary increase, making him the region's highest paid head of state. While the majority of reactions were negative in a generalized and diplomatic kind of way, the body language of respondents also seemed to convey subtle feelings of anger. One man brought it all out on the surface: "Our society has become like an overblown balloon," he said. "If politicians continue blowing air inside, they will make it pop."
His metaphorical warning echoed what many analysts have feared might happen following independence, namely that the dire social and economic situation, coupled with discontent with the political establishment, makes some kind of social unrest inevitable. Sejdiu's reported salary increase (which he later reversed) is only the latest case of reckless behaviour by political leaders that strikes a nerve in a society grappled by economic hardship and anxiety. The most recent UNDP Early Warning Report published in May showed 68.4 per cent of citizens were willing to go out and protest for economic reasons. This number has been constantly high for years but it takes on a new significance after independence.
It's no mystery why patience is running thin. Kosovo has the lowest GDP per capita in the region, unemployment remains high, infrastructure and basic utilities are worn out, 15 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line and more than double that amount are considered poor. On top of that, inflation was 13 per cent only last year. Even those who do have jobs find it hard to make ends meet. Adding to people's anxiety are lousy public services, a culture of impunity in the justice system, endemic corruption and the frustrations of a state-building process supervised by unaccountable and colonial-behaving international bodies.
So why hasn't the balloon popped yet? One reason is that the independence hangover has not faded away completely and the Thaçi government is still seen as being on a test drive. Another reason could be that economic statistics are not capturing the whole picture, most notably the level of remittances coming from abroad and the activities in the informal sector which provide a lifeline to many families.
But there are also other deeper reasons behind the resilience of Kosovars related to general political culture and history. After living in crisis conditions for decades, the nation's survival skills and patience are well trained. Furthermore, we have not yet developed the kind of sturdy democratic traditions within which authority is actively challenged. Society remains submissive and fatalistic. But there is a flip side to strong patience. I recall the long display of peaceful resistance to Serbian repression in the 1990s which then led to a build-up of frustration and a call to arms. The parallel between the 1990s and economic crisis today might appear far-fetched, but it suggests that even a patient and submissive society has a tipping point.
It's hard to predict where that tipping point would be in the current situation. The majority of the economically distressed will see little tangible change within one government mandate, no matter how bold its reforms are, so their impatience is bound to grow. Whether this triggers something will depend on many factors. The most important issue is whether a credible structure emerges that can mobilize this silent majority of disenchanted. The low turnout in the November elections signaled that voters are dissatisfied with the establishment as a whole, so it is unlikely that figures like Haradinaj, Daci and Pacolli would be able to gain a following beyond their current base.
The only existing structure that has any potential to reshape the political map is Albin Kurti's Vetevendosje. Although the movement still primarily views itself as a guardian of the national interest, operating outside party politics, it has often used a populist discourse of social justice that might work well with voters in a country with widening inequalities and a hunger for a protest vote. Kurti's intentions remain unclear, but Vetevendosje’s development into a left political party would perhaps be a healthy thing for Kosovo's democracy. It would awaken the self-serving establishment and diffuse social unrest by channeling the concerns of the marginalized into mainstream politics. Yes, the movement’s rhetoric combines rather dodgy forms of dogmatic socialism and nationalism, but its views are likely to evolve once inside the mainstream. The risks of a balloon pop are much higher if extremists are hanging on the sidelines and there is no one for whom the marginalized could vote.
The article was published by BIRN in the Balkan Insight regional website and the print publication of Prishtina Insight. Link: (subsciption required)http://www.balkaninsight.c
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